Your Odds of Dating a Japanese Idol Are Lower Than Getting Struck by Lightning
Ever dreamed of dating a Japanese idol? You’re definitely not alone—but a Japanese TV program has revealed just how unrealistic that dream might be.
In a segment aired on national television, analysts crunched some numbers to estimate the actual probability that a regular guy could end up in a relationship with a Japanese idol. Spoiler: it’s less than 1%. Way less.
Your Odds of Dating a Japanese Idol Are Lower Than Getting Struck by Lightning
Here’s how they got that number.
Japan currently has about 6,993 female idols across 945 idol groups. Of those, only 55.2% are 18 or older, which is the minimum age the show considered for a potential relationship.
That leaves us with roughly 3,860 adult idols.
Now, compare that to the estimated male population between ages 18 and 30 in Japan, which is around 8.71 million. Do the math, and you get a 0.0443% chance of simply being one of the eligible guys for a legal-age idol.
But the real chance of actually dating one? Factoring in whether you meet, click, and she likes you back… it drops to just 0.0247%, or about 1 in 4,049.
Ouch.
The show then went full statistical mode and compared that number with other rare events in life. All figures are based on data from Japan.
Here are things you’re more likely to experience than dating an idol:
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Marrying your first love: 1%
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Getting into the University of Tokyo: 0.12%
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Being robbed at home: 0.1%
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Being murdered: 0.03%
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Catching a home run ball at a baseball stadium: 0.026%
And things that are even less likely than dating an idol:
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Buying lottery tickets for 80 years and winning the jackpot: 0.00797%
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Seeing a male calico cat (extremely rare): 0.003%
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Getting killed by a falling rock: 0.0004%
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Dying from a lightning strike: 0.0012%
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Dying in a plane crash: 0.0009%
So technically, your idol romance fantasy isn’t the least likely thing in the world. But it’s still pretty close.
It Has Happened Before… Kind of
Still clinging to hope? There was at least one case where a male fan ended up dating his favorite idol—and she was the one who confessed first.
But for every Cinderella story, there’s a cautionary tale: in 2024, a manager who allegedly forced a relationship with an idol was not only exposed but also fired. Not the romantic ending he had in mind.
