Light Novels in Decline Sales Plummet by Almost 50% Since 2015

The light novel market (or “ラノベ”, ranobe) in Japan has been experiencing a sharp decline in recent years — or at least that’s what Japanese otaku are saying on a popular forum. By analyzing Oricon’s sales data from the past decade, fans discovered that total sales dropped from ¥351.4 billion in 2015 to just ¥184.1 billion in 2024 — a reduction of nearly 50%.

The big question is: what caused the decline of one of the pillars of otaku culture?

Light Novels in Decline: Sales Plummet by Almost 50% Since 2015

Below are the sales figures for light novels according to a chart circulating in forums. These are based on Oricon’s sales data (which often don’t reflect the full picture, by the way).

• 文庫 (Bunkō): traditional pocket-sized format.

• BOOK: larger format, more recent, commonly used for novels adapted from online platforms like Shōsetsuka ni Narō.

The bunkō format, once dominant, is clearly in decline. Many readers now prefer the “BOOK” format, especially for popular titles adapted from online platforms like Narō and Kakuyomu.

What Are Japanese Fans Saying?

Since this was posted on a forum, many users chimed in with their opinions, sharing why they stopped buying light novels — offering insight into the market’s decline.

🗨️ “You can read them for free on Narō and Kakuyomu. Why buy bunkō?”

The accessibility of free online novels has undermined the need to purchase physical versions, especially in the bunkō format. Many readers simply no longer see the value in paying for stories they can read for free.

🗨️ “The peak was thanks to Haruhi, Monogatari, SAO…”

Fans recall the “golden age of light novels” featuring hits like Haruhi Suzumiya, Bakemonogatari, Sword Art Online, and Oregairu, which dominated the market. Since then, few titles have made a similar impact.

🗨️ “Everything is just the same isekai now…”

The oversaturation of the isekai genre (reincarnation in another world), with its repetitive tropes — rejected protagonists, magic schools, peaceful otherworld lives — may be wearing readers down.

🗨️ “He goes to a magic school, fights a red-haired noble, wins, and the girl falls for him… I’ve seen this 30 times!” – one user commented.

🗨️ “Otaku don’t even read anymore… They prefer VTubers and manga.”

With the rise of VTubers, digital manga, and free video apps, physical books have lost ground among young audiences. Even the light novel sections in bookstores have been reduced to a single shelf.

The BOOK Format Is Holding Strong

Despite the overall decline, the BOOK format — typically linked to printed editions of webnovels after gaining popularity online — has remained relatively stable. This suggests that readers are still buying novels, but more selectively, particularly when a fandom already exists.

via Você Sabia Anime